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HOW TO OUTSMART BOOKMAKERS
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How to outsmart bookmakers by turning your odds against them
February 25, 2019
Nice flute? The chances of winning by betting on sportingbet football matches are extremely low, but three researchers managed to beat the odds with a simple formula.
Mathematicians have already developed bookmaker models that try to predict the outcome of sports matches, but they are difficult to invent and are not always consistent. Lisandro Kaunitz of the University of Tokyo and his colleagues wanted to know if a more direct approach would work: using the bookmakers’ own chances against them.
The team researched 10 years of data on almost half a million football matches and related odds offered by 32 bookmakers between January 2005 and June 2015. For each game, they looked for odds that could give better returns than average offered by bookmakers – say, from 5 to 1 against an average of 2 to 1.
“Using the published odds, you can get a very good rating for an event,” says team member Javier Krainer, data specialist at the start of the cargo CargoX in Sao Paulo, Brazil. “What is the probability that Barcelona will win against Real Madrid, for example.”
The average odds of 2 to 1 suggest that bookmakers collectively believe that this reflects a fair chance of this result. But 5 to 1 offers a higher return if the result is realized. The team uses historical data to determine the optimal distance from the average odds – the one that would give a positive profit for the largest number of games.
When they implemented their strategy in a simulation, they made a return of 3.5%. Betting randomly led to a loss of 3.32%.
In real time
Then the team decided to try to really bet. They have developed an online tool to apply the odds averaged formula for upcoming football matches. When the opportunity arose, a team member sent Kaunitz and his wife, and then one of them. They kept this for five months, placing $ 50 bets about 30 times a week.
And they win. After five months, the team made a profit of $ 957.50 – a return of 8.5%. There were some administrative costs, such as the cost of running servers to monitor odds in real time. But Kaunitz and his wife managed to have a nice dinner in Tokyo, he said. “We were excited, but it’s worth mentioning – you have to take a lot of time to do it.”
But their strip was broken. After a series of small wins, the trio were surprised to find that their accounts were limited, limiting how much they could bet to $ 1.25.
A spokesman for bet365bg , one of the bookmakers used by the team, said betting was sometimes limited “in a small number of cases”.
“This can be due to a number of reasons, including the misuse of bonuses and taking proportionally more than their fair share of special offers and increased prices, which are intended for many, not a few,” he said.
The gambling industry has long restricted players who seem to show an advantage over the house, said Mark Griffiths of Nottingham Trent University in the UK. A classic example is card counting, which can help players win in blackjack. Casinos are quick to kick out those who try it, and it is sometimes labeled a scam. But this is not illegal in the United States or the United Kingdom.
Interception of bots
Griffiths compares the team’s approach to card counting. “It’s not a scam at all – it uses math to try to defeat a certain system,” he said.
Online bookmakers have very low profit margins, so some offer generous odds for very short periods of time in certain meetings to attract automated or expert outdoor betting systems, says economist David Forrest of the University of Liverpool in the UK. “They will try to catch the robots,” he said. “Anyone who answers closes their account.”
Some of the researchers’ accounts may have been breached by this system. In some cases, they found that they could not gamble at all after registering with some bookmakers. If so, then this suggests that their technique really finds the best chances. But the house still always wins.
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rofessors unite for college football, basketball players to be employees
Faculty members around the country form College Athletes Rights and Empowerment Faculty Coalition to engage with athletes and policy makers on player rights.
Jon Solomon
By Jon Solomon
Mar 12, 2015 at 9:01 am ET
4 min read
A group of university faculty members, disturbed by how they say college football and basketball players are treated academically and economically, announced Thursday a national coalition to support recognizing those players as employees.
The College Athletes Rights and Empowerment Faculty Coalition (CARE-FC) said it will work with football and basketball players “who seek relief from the fraudulent business practices used by college sport organizations” and educate policy makers about “exploitative” college sport industry. CARE-FC said college sports’ business practices rob athletes of basic civil rights and should be paid for their labor, work in a safe environment, be protected when injuries occur, and “be treated with human dignity.”
The coalition’s co-founders are two high-profile advocates for college athlete rights: Ellen Staurowsky, a Drexel University professor who has researched college sports for several decades; and Richard Southall, director of the College Sport Research Institute at the University of South Carolina. Nineteen faculty members from around the country have so far signed their name as part of CARE-FC.
“We want to actively reach out to players and engage in discussions with them in a collaborative way to let players on campuses know there are faculty members who stand in support with them regarding their concerns, and to also let them know we may have some expertise that lends to the challenges,” Staurowsky said.
The coalition comes as the waiting game continues for a ruling by the National Labor Relations Board on an appeal by Northwestern regarding player unionization. Last March, NLRB regional director Peter Sung Ohr determined that Northwestern football players are employees and eligible to vote on forming a union. The decision could set a precedent for private universities.
Northwestern football players held an election last April and those ballots were impounded pending the university’s appeal to the NLRB’s five-member board. The delay on the appeal ruling has lasted almost a year. Unions tend to be a political lightning rod.
“In some ways, I really think the delay in that decision is reflective of the powerlessness these athletes have,” Staurowsky said.
Since the initial NLRB ruling, the states of Michigan and Ohio have made efforts to prevent college athletes from forming unions. Ohio lawmakers passed a budget proposal in June that says college athletes are not public employees under state law.
Michigan quickly passed a law in December with its lame-duck legislature that now makes it illegal for athletes at Michigan’s public universities to join a union. Supporters of the Michigan law have said it reinforces the idea that college athletes are students first and should focus on the classroom.
Meanwhile, a bill in Connecticut was recently proposed that would allow for some college athletes to form a union. Whether the bill ever passes remains to be seen.
The Michigan law “should be concerning to all of us, the idea that a state legislature could reach in and create a different class of citizens,” Staurowsky said. “I think it’s deeply concerning and speaks to the very reason why we as faculty feel we have to speak up and use the resources we have.”
CARE-FC has support from university professors at Drexel, South Carolina, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Western Illinois, George Mason, Georgia, Eastern Michigan, Kutztown State, Michigan State, Western Carolina, Pacific, Texas A&M and Wake Forest. The coalition plans to develop relationships with the National College Players Association and College Athlete Players Association — the groups run by Ramogi Huma, who is leading player union efforts — and player associations in pro sports.
The NCAA and its universities have implemented or discussed some health protections and new benefits for players, such as allowing a cost of attendance stipend. Athletes now have a portion of the vote in the NCAA governance structure.
Very few leaders in college sports believe internal changes will quiet the outside noise, but they are outspoken against players becoming employees. In recent interviews, several commissioners described legal threats as the biggest risk to hurting college football’s popularity.
“You just hope that fans generally don’t get fatigued with all of the legal issues and debates about whether players are employees, whether they should be paid,” ACC commissioner John Swofford said. “All of the fan feedback and surveys I’ve seen seem to indicate the American public and college sports fans want to see college players and by and large believe they are going to school and part of the collegiate experience. If that changes dramatically, I think that will negatively impact how people view college sports in the long run.”
Said Pac-12 commissioner Larry Scott: “The USFL and XFL weren’t very successful for a reason. The D-League isn’t very successful for a reason. The public isn’t very interested in development or semi-pro sports. The plaintiffs would like to turn college sports into semi-pro sports. I think that would kill college football or college basketball.”
Staurowsky, who testified for the Ed O’Bannon plaintiffs in their victory against the NCAA at a trial last summer, said she didn’t cavalierly reach her conclusion that athletes should be employees.
“So much of our discussion around whether football or basketball players should be employees evokes this sense of, ‘They wouldn’t be students anymore,’” Staurowsky said. “Sixty-five percent to 80 percent of all undergraduates earn a paycheck at some kind of job. This idea that if you advocate for employee status for athletes means you’re suggesting the academic part of it doesn’t matter, it seems very foreign to me as a researcher who has studied these issues a long time.”